Following violent protests that unseated one of Africa’s longest ruling presidents, Burkina Faso’s military, civilian and civil society factions signed a deal on 6 November agreeing to a transitional government framework. Elections can be held in one year’s time.

The agreement, brokered by the presidents of neighboring west African countries Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal, is designed to return Burkina Faso to civilian rule.
After the ouster of President Blaise Compraore on 31 October after tens of thousands of Burkinabe protesters took the streets, the military appointed Lieutenant-Colonel Isaac Ziad to run the country. The transition talks in Ouagadougou, the capital, ended without naming a leader of the civilian unity government. However, all parties have agreed that  an "eminent civilian personality" will take the post.
Despite having a transition deal on paper, opposition leaders have voiced concerns that the military will resist relinquishing power. Mr Ziad has affirmed his intentions to do so in several statements, and is under strong pressure from regional and international actors to follow through.
“There is always a temptation, but I am not sure it will be easy [for the military to remain in government] even if the opposition have signalled they do not completely rule this out,” Alex Vines, director of Chatham House’s Africa programme, tells This Is Africa.
That said, there is little clarity going into the transition. “The opposition is currently divided and I think it is too difficult to predict the next president at this stage,” Mr Vines says.
Mr Comproare, who has fled to neighboring Côte d'Ivoire, spent 27 years at the helm of the small west African country. The protests that finally pushed him out were sparked when he attempted to extend his rule yet again by amending the constitution to extend the term limits for the presidency. Two five-year term limits were initially introduced in 2000. Mr Compraore won elections in 2005 and 2010. Save for the amendment, he would have been ineligible to run again in 2015.
Under the constitution, the leader of the National Assembly should assuming the role of interim president in advent of the president’s resignation. According to France 24, Mr Compraore, his wife and their entourage were escorted in a 27 car convoy to a government secured villa in Côte d'Ivoire.
His hasty departure was facilitated by France, Burkina Faso’s former colonial ruler. French prime minister Francois Hollande has added his voice to the many regional ones calling for a transition to civilian rule.
Developments in Burkina Faso are being closely watched by other leaders in the region - such as Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Benin - who are preparing challenges to constitutional term limits in their own countries.
Scrapping term limits in order to remain in power is a tried and tested political maneuver. Legislatures in countries such as Zimbabwe, Angola, Chad and Uganda have all been persuaded to effectively eliminate presidential term limits. The backlash in Burkina Faso, however, might indicate that populations are less likely to sit by as such measures get pushed through.
Burkina Faso remains one of the most impoverished countries in the world, ranking 183rd out of 186 on the UN’s 2013 Human Development Index. Until recently, the country attracted very little foreign investment, although the past few years have witnessed a substantial uptick in inflows into the telecoms and mining sectors.
Risks for investors will stand on whether or not a smooth transition and credible elections can be managed. If that is the case, despite some short term uncertainty “the democratic benefit will be a boost for Burkina in the short to mid-term,” says Mr. Vines.
“My single biggest worry is though how a new leader in Burkina can manage expectations and also encourage more inclusive growth. International donors and investors have an important role to play too.”
A reported 30 protesters died in Burkina Faso’s protests, and a hundred others were injured, according to opposition sources. Reports of police using live ammunition against protesters have circulated widely. Despite his long tenure, Mr Compraore’s rule has been punctuated by other instances of unrest. Protests against the his administration have occurred at least six other times since 1999,the most recent in 2011.
Mr Comproare’s political legacy is a complex one. A close ally of the US and France, the former president also maintained close ties with former Libyan strongman Muhammar Qaddafi, considered a pariah by western states.
Mr Comproare had other unsavoury friends. The trial of former Liberian warlord-turned-president Charles Taylor in a UN-backed international court confirmed the key role that Compraore’s government played in the Liberian and Sierra Leonian civil wars. Mr Compraore supplied Taylor with weapons in exchange for a cut on the side through the illicit diamond trade. Mr Taylor is now serving a 50-year jail sentence in the UK.
Compraore has also been accused of supporting militant groups in the Côte d'Ivoire and and Angola.
Burkina Faso gained its independence from France in 1960, then known as Upper Volta. The country was renamed by Thomas Sankara, a charismatic military leader who seized power in a 1983 coup with Mr Compraore as his deputy. Mr Sankara was known for his socialist leanings and strong anti-imperialist stances.
He was deposed and assassinated in the 1987 coup that brought Mr Compraore to power. Sankara was 37 years old. Mr Compraore, for his part, has presided over Burkina Faso ever since - until last week, when his bid to extend his rule one more time proved one too many. /News

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